Polymer prices - significant three-digit percentage drop in monomer and polymer prices in July

In the first week of July, there was a significant triple-digit decline in contract monomer prices: the price of ethylene monomer fell by 200 euros, the price of propylene monomer by 190 euros, and the price of styrene monomer by 270 euros compared to June.

Polymer prices also continued their downward trend and fell further; the lowest prices are now at the level seen at the end of February. Western European polymer manufacturers are uncertain about the correct pricing and are asking their customers for price indications. However, most Central European polymer manufacturers had already announced their monthly prices for July and their weekly prices for the first week of July last week. On a month-to-month basis, prices for polyolefins fell by 350–500 €/t. Polystyrene prices are still only partially known, but a significant price drop, following the trend in SM prices, is expected. As for PVC, prices have fallen by 100 - 150 €/t so far.

By July, a negative spread had developed for most polyolefins, which still generates positive cash flow for integrated producers; however, this has also limited the scope for further price reductions. After the first half of the year came to a close, selling pressure also eased. Polymer manufacturers are also taking time off. 

Demand appears to be picking up on the converter side, as plastic converters have begun to draw down the inventories they built up in April and May. Some plastics converters are still waiting to see how things play out, but it’s already clear that most of them will have to make purchases as early as July. As July prices are finalized, we can expect demand to pick up in the coming week. Converters will try to make their purchases before the summer vacations. It remains to be seen whether demand will be strong enough to slow down, or perhaps even halt, the price declines.

A decline in polymer prices of a similar magnitude and steepness to that seen in June is unlikely in July. However, there are import offers from North Africa for August at prices lower than the lower end of the current price range. Following the EU-U.S. tariff agreement, three-digit polyethylene prices are expected to appear in Europe as early as August. This, in turn, encourages users to wait and see, which could curb demand - particularly in July - for low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), which is used in large quantities. Due to the influx of cheap polyethylene imports, the likelihood of a potential general seasonal price increase or a natural price correction following the sharp price drop in June is decreasing.

Author: myCEPPI

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