Polymer prices - The past week was still all about holidays

4.9.2025

Although sellers are eagerly awaiting the end of summer and a pick-up in demand, there is still no sign of it. A significant number of converters were still on holiday. Due to a series of planned and unplanned factory shutdowns across Central Europe in August, shortages of some popular thermoforming and fibre grades are starting to emerge in the PPH market, in addition to HDPE. Based on feedstock prices, an olefin monomer roll-over is likely in September. The monomer roll-over is likely to be followed by a polymer roll-over. But some polymer manufacturers are already preparing to raise prices due to limited availability. In the case of styrene monomer, a smaller decrease of 30-50 euros is likely, but according to some market opinions, a more significant price decrease is possible.

The market is quantitatively balanced, but there is a severe shortage of certain grades. This is illustrated by the fact that converters who are used to Czech or Hungarian HDPE BM do not rush to buy from the Serbian producer, where there is availability. It is true that the shortage mainly affects bimodal grades, while the Serbian manufacturer only has unimodal grades. The situation is different for PPH. Due to the outage of the Czech manufacturer, some large multinational packaging material manufacturers are already looking for alternative sourcing options, not only from European but also from imported sources.

For now, however, it seems that everyone generally has enough starting stock for the expected demand for the fall season. The only problem is if demand is higher than expected. In this case, the limited availability of feedstock will be important. September, the first month of the autumn season, is likely to be the strongest. Demand will drop in October due to the "K" fair and will probably not recover this year. A foretaste of this can already be seen in the stagnating or even downward trend in feedstock prices for both SM and butadiene.

Polymer prices are expected to track feedstock price trends. In the case of polyolefins, this initially means a roll-over, while later it means a price reduction. In the case of SM and butadiene, we expect a continuous price decrease in the remaining months of 2025. However, there is no way to reduce prices "infinitely" for either monomers or polymers. Import prices are already close to their lowest point, the point where it is no longer worth importing them into Europe. On the other hand, in the case of falling prices, imports are quite risky, the available profits decrease month by month, and margins may even turn negative. It is likely that the shipments currently on the way and arriving in October-November will not be followed by new ones until February 2026, before the spring season.

It is increasingly apparent that there is an overproduction of polymers on a global level. This will also require manufacturers in the Far East to cut back on capacity.

Author: MyCEPPI