Polymer prices - Weak prolonged season, price decline, triple-digit polyolefin prices
The shortage is mainly in HDPE BM bimodal grades and some PPH grades. Even European shutdowns and FMs are unable to restore the balance between supply and demand. October olefin monomer prices are likely to bring a drop of between €0 and €10. For SM, a price drop of €10-50/t is expected by market participants. This is in line with market expectations of slight price erosion.
The primary reason for the weak demand is that the pessimistic outlook has led to a significant reduction in the willingness to stock, both among plastics converters and their customers. Customers only order at the last minute. This makes it difficult for converters to make production plans even one month ahead. Therefore, converters' polymer and finished product stock levels are also low. Due to "last minute" orders, the fall season is expected to be delayed and there will still be immediate demand in late November and early December.
Stocks are now accumulating at polymer producers and distributors. These players, however, exert significant supply and price pressure on the entire market. There are Central European polymer manufacturers that have been closed for weeks, yet have still available products.
Supply pressure is unlikely to ease, with significant polymer shipments on the way from the Far and Middle East, as well as North America, expected to arrive in late October or early November. Additionally, for North American polymers, shipments arriving after November 1st will be duty-free.
Expectations of continued price falls will further reduce demand in September and probably also in October. Several traders expect to be able to place larger volumes on "K" under special agreements. This is unlikely due to weak and uncertain demand.
Due to supply pressure, prices are further eroding, so imports cannot be sold with a positive margin. Significant inventories are likely to build up during November, the supply pressure of which will be felt in the first quarter of 2026. Due to low prices and oversupply, it is likely that fewer import shipments will depart in early 2026. This should allow the European polymer market to consolidate by the spring season, the second quarter of 2026. In particular, global polymer producers will permanently shut down several European polymer plants.
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myCEPPI
myCEPPI provides a weekly price report for commodity plastics.
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