Polymer prices - Oversupply and selectively limited availability in November

11.11.2025

The past week has been characterized by mixed demand and price effects on polymer markets. Demand for certain grades and types has increased due to looming availability problems. While in other cases – mainly for imported grades – demand has stagnated.

There was a simultaneous price increase – for critically available grades, and price stabilization for imported grades. Olefin monomer prices decreased by 25 euros. In theory, this would induce a decrease in polymer prices, however, some European polymer manufacturers are preparing for a price increase, or in the worst case, a price roll-over. In the Southern Central European Region (SCE), limited availability of the usual Central European grades is expected, which may also induce a price increase, as was the case last week.

A dual supply situation is emerging in Central Europe, while the market is characterized by oversupply and subdued demand due to imported grades. Until then, there is limited availability or even shortage of the well-known and widely used Central European polyethylene and polypropylene grades. There are several reasons for this, one of which is the sanctions, as a result of which the Bulgarian PP and Serbian PE producers cannot sell, and the Serbian PP producer cannot purchase propylene from domestic sources. The entry into force of sanctions against the Bulgarian PP producer is largely influenced by the fact that Lukoil also sold its affected assets to the Swiss-based Gunvor Group. It is currently unclear whether OFAC will accept this step and exempt Lukoil Neftochim from sanctions.

The other, less spectacular reason was a fire in the AV-3 distillation plant of Mol's Danube Refinery, which is still under investigation, so it is not known how long the shutdown will last. However, preliminary expectations are that the refinery in Százhalombatta will definitely operate at a maximum 60% capacity utilization this year. This will likely reduce the supply of naphtha (NAPHTHA) to steam crackers. This results in less ethylene and propylene, which will affect the production of polypropylene and polyethylene. The situation is particularly critical because the Hungarian polyethylene producer has been struggling with continuous production problems for months (HDPE FM), which resulted in limited availability of bimodal HDPE grades in Central Europe as early as October. This is likely to narrow further. The fact that MOL has an ethylene supply obligation to Borsodchem also speaks in favor of the expected decrease in polyethylene production. Moreover, the margin available on ethylene monomer is still higher than on polyethylenes.

In the case of polyethylene, another factor reducing supply is that a Romanian LDPE producer has finished processing the previously purchased ethylene, and it is not known when a new shipment will arrive. Ethylene supply has also narrowed in Poland, which will be primarily reflected in the availability of HDPE.

There is no news about the implementation of the EU-US tariff agreement, so it will probably not be implemented until January at the earliest, but in the rapidly changing political climate it may even be delayed. In addition, more and more polyethylene and polypropylene is coming from the United States and, more recently, Canada.

Last week, demand picked up for grades where converters expect tight supply. In some cases, panic buying was also experienced. There was a distributor who was able to sell inventory purchased in March at a profit. Not everyone is feeling the effects of the shrinking supply yet, but according to news from contracted converters, supply to them remains uninterrupted. However, in the case of Central European grades, manufacturer spot offers have disappeared from the market. The biggest risk is that most plastics converters are working with low polymer stock levels. However, it is important to see that the caution of converters is due to unusually weak demand for finished and semi-finished products and prices that have been falling for months.

The monomer price decrease was smaller than expected. Probably also because some European polymer manufacturers are preparing for a price increase, which would be almost impossible with a monomer price decreasing by 40-50 euros. It seems that as the end of the year approaches, the focus has shifted to improving profitability. Thus, in particular, in the case of scarcely available European-produced polyolefins, a small successful price increase may occur.

Prices for imported polymers from the Middle East are expected to remain stable, while some North African and North American HDPEs, for example, are expected to fall in late November and early December, according to preliminary reports.

The variable availability of European grades, unpredictable supply and high prices are encouraging more and more plastics converters to turn to cheap imported grades.

The Central European polyolefin markets will be characterized by a general oversupply and at the same time tight supply in most applications in the coming months. All this widens the price bands, increasing uncertainty.

The situation is not so bad in the case of polystyrenes, although the SM prices have not yet been published, most expectations point towards a price reduction of around 50 euros. Although, due to the uncertainty present here in recent days due to the increase in spot SM prices, many have also raised the possibility of a price increase.

Author: MyCEPPI