Polymer prices – rising feedstock prices, increasing demand, narrowing availability

31.7.2026

The past week was characterized by further rising feedstock prices and noticeably stronger polyolefin demand. The lower end of the price range has risen for most polyolefins, as supplies of lower-priced items have run out. In the case of polystyrenes, there has been a strong increase in demand, primarily for EPS. The PVC and PET markets are still characterized by weak demand, but the decline in prices has slowed and, in the case of PVC, has come to a halt. Some polymer manufacturers and traders are no longer accepting new orders for July, while others continue to meet converters’ needs but are passing on the expected price increase in August. Price elasticity has disappeared, and the expectations of converters and polymer manufacturers point towards price increases.

The current market situation resembles that of early March in several respects; polymer inventories are below optimal levels, and converters are now slightly understocked. A significant number of converters have already used up their stocks purchased in the spring and will need to purchase in August. At the beginning of last week, most polymer manufacturers and traders still had limited availability. However, by the end of the week, on Friday, most were no longer accepting orders. Availability was still limited to just a few Western European polymer manufacturers, but this is also expected to decrease further in the coming week. The steep and unexpected increase in feedstock prices is also forcing sellers to wait and see; no one wants to sell at a lower price.

How much monomer price increase is expected?

The price of NAPHTHA increased by 34%, more than 200 USD, in 3 weeks. It reached a price level of 833 USD/t on Thursday of last week, then closed at 810.35 USD/t on Friday. It is not yet known whether this is a trend reversal or just a minor correction. Since price changes happen very quickly, it is possible that feedstock prices will start to decline in the coming week. However, it is very likely that the NAPHTHA price in early August will be higher than in early July. Thus, olefin monomer prices will increase, with most market participants expecting a three-digit price increase in August for both olefin and styrene monomer. This also clearly predicts a rise in European polymer prices. The price increases in August are also driven by rising import prices.

Will there be panic buying?

There will not be a general buying panic like in spring. Plastic converters learned their lesson this spring that it's not worth accumulating large quantities at great expense. Globally, markets are characterized by an oversupply of polymers, so a major European polymer price increase immediately opens arbitrage windows and price equalization begins. Moreover, the entire plastic value chain is still full of expensively produced semi-finished and finished products and packaging materials, and buyers are trying to use these. Therefore, we do not expect a significant increase in demand from buyers.

The summer vacation season and the increasingly weakening and shortening autumn season are counteracting the development of panic. Due to the summer holidays that last until mid-August, some plastics converters have shut down or are planning to shut down. They mostly planned to buy in the second half of August. Over the past 10 days, many have sensed that the price drops are over and it's time to buy. Therefore, demand was brisk compared to July. It is likely that the "late risers" will try to buy the most in the coming week, but there will be no availability. Polymer producers and traders will wait until early August and the publication of monthly contract monomer prices.

How much polymer price increase is expected?

It varies by market, grade and price category. The price increase will be smaller in the South Central European region (SCE), which has extremely depressed prices and strong competition, while the price increase will be larger in the northern region. The lower end of the price bands will likely increase with the overall monomer price increase on a month-on-month basis, but only a moderate price increase is expected for the highest prices in August.

The biggest upside of the expected significant rise in monomer prices is that it will halt the price decline and bring customer expectations back to normal—expectations that, since mid-June, had centered on an “endless” price decline. According to preliminary information, sellers and polymer manufacturers will try to price according to demand. They will raise prices as much as demand will allow. Therefore, the final price level will only be established in the first week of August.

Author: myCEPPI