Polymer prices – Slightly rising PE, PS, PET stagnating PP and falling PVC prices in December

PP prices have tended to remain stable, although some producers have tried to implement small price increases. For polystyrene, there is a clear upward trend in prices, but few transactions are taking place due to weak demand. PVC is the only one for which the price decrease is clear. With the exception of PET, demand is weak, typical for December. Converters have enough stocks to last until the end of the year. The reason for the additional purchases is that more people want to secure their January production, but at different prices.

Several converters are also postponing purchases until January due to the price increases and tight availability of polyethylene, especially LDPE. However, in Hungary and further south, heightened demand is being felt, mainly due to supply uncertainty in January. In this region, converters do not feel secure about January supplies due to MOL's reduced production and the sanctions on NIS and Lukoil. But converters do not seem to want to pay a significantly higher price here either. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact that the price ranges for polyolefins have barely changed compared to the end of November. Demand in January is not expected to be strong, with most converters starting production only after 10 January. In Serbia, due to the Orthodox Christmas and New Year period, normal production is expected to start only after mid-January. The higher prices will be paid mostly by the converters who start production as early as January 5th.

Basically, tight polyolefin availability is expected in the first half of 2026, partly due to the reduced production of MOL Petrochemical, partly due to the shutdown of HIP-Petrohemija, the expected capacity reduction of HIPOL, and sales uncertainties at LUKOIL Neftochim. Added to this is the maintenance due in the spring at ORLEN. But this also includes the shutdowns announced last week by some Western European manufacturers. It is not yet known whether these outages are temporary or permanent.  All of this also means that converters need to become more open to alternatives. In the southern region and in Hungary, it can be seen that converters are looking for alternatives, and there has been an increased openness not only towards European but also imported materials. This will reshape markets and change the composition of suppliers in 2026. Some European manufacturers will capture a larger share, while the penetration of non-European, imported grades will also increase significantly.

The biggest question is demand in 2026. We see no reason for demand to strengthen for now, and the first half of 2026 is expected to be similar to the last months of 2025, of course adjusted for some seasonal effects. The end of the war in Ukraine may bring optimism to the market, which could lead to an increase in retail and corporate investments.