Polymer prices - continued price increases, uncertain prices, tight supply in April

Several European polymer producers have published preliminary or working prices, but most of them only maintain these prices in the short term. New price lists are expected to be announced after the Easter holidays.

Contrary to appearances, monomer producers were still pricing cautiously, not taking full advantage of the feedstock price increase. On the last day of March, the price of naphtha increased by about USD 100 (11%) from March 30 to March 31, and then by April 2, when propylene and SM prices were published, there was a further increase of USD 35. Overall, the price of NAPHTHA increased by 72% compared to the beginning of March, which would have allowed a maximum olefin monomer price increase of 750-850 euros. However, the BRENT quotation increased by "only" 47% during this period. The spectacular divergence between the prices of oil and NAPHTHA suggests that European refineries are expecting a shortage of crude oil in the coming weeks, so the prices of refinery products will increase significantly. This is also confirmed by the fact that ORLEN-Unipetrol has been reporting FM (force majeure) for 10 days due to oil supply difficulties.

The pricing of polymers is also driven by anticipated supply difficulties and feedstock price increases. Although we have not yet seen the final April prices, there was a Central European polymer producer who, for precautionary reasons, increased the preliminary April price of polyethylene by nearly 1,000 euros compared to the beginning of March. Practically pricing in the entire feedstock price increase. So far, other European polymer manufacturers have not taken this step, but we will only see the final prices in the coming week. According to some polymer manufacturers, current price levels already cover the increased feedstock and energy costs and also provide them with a decent margin. However, due to the uncertain oil market situation, the practice of weekly pricing is maintained.

European polymer manufacturers have stocks, so there is no need to fear any significant further supply shortages in April. The fact that the maintenance of the largest cracker in Central Europe in Poland has been postponed by one month is helping a lot in maintaining supply. Price increases are limited by the appearance of Far Eastern import PP, PS and PVC offers for June-July delivery, close to the lower values of the April price bands. If the Hormuz crisis is resolved in April and crude oil shipments resume, polymer supply could expand in June at high prices. Until then, however, we must prepare for a nervous market and extremely tight supply in May. Most converters have been trying to build inventories over the past month, and it is expected that the panic will be less in April than in March.

The biggest problem for plastics converters is how to pass on price increases? In the case of flexible packaging materials, price increases are mostly temporary due to the lack of imported film and the packaging pressure of customers. This is helped by the fact that the cost of packaging materials is only a few percent of the price of the product. The companies in the biggest trouble are those with contractual, quarterly or longer-term prices. In these cases, the price increase is complicated and takes a long time. Converters without delivery obligations simply do not serve customers who do not pay the increased prices. Companies manufacturing household injection-molded products are primarily struggling with price increases, as the price increase here is not passed on indirectly, but directly to the end user.