Polymer prices - multi-stage price rises, dramatically shrinking import supply

23.3.2026

The buying panic continued last week, with sellers raising prices in several stages. European polymer producers have been trying to track the feed-stock price increases. Converters are also under price pressure, but are only partially able to pass on the price increase, but stocks bought in earlier still cover profitable production.

The feedstock price rally, with triple-digit oil prices, looks set to stay with us into next week. In fact, there seems to be no quick solution to the supply problems, high oil prices remain. A significant monomer price increase is expected in April.

On the first day of last week, oil prices returned to triple digits for the first time since 2022, although there was a correction during the week, with BRENT stabilising above USD 100/barrel by the end of last week. On an annual basis, this is a 46% increase. This month, oil prices have risen by 50%. The price of NAPHTHA also rose by a similar amount. Polymer markets reacted immediately to the price changes last week. Most European polymer producers raised prices, some in several steps. There were some central European polyolefin producers who increased their prices in three steps, by up to €400-450 in total. The price level on Friday last week was much higher than at the beginning of the week. The price perception of converters depended a lot on which day of the past week they bought. This is also the reason for the extremely wide price bands that have been created. The price increase will continue, and at the beginning of the week ahead, polyolefin and PET producers and traders who "lagged behind" last week, i.e. only announced their prices once, will also increase their prices. However, price dynamics similar to last week are no longer likely. Unless oil prices move up another level. Based on the current BRENT and NAPHTHA price levels, a contract olefin monomer price increase of between €400-500/t is likely in April. In the case of polyolefins and PVC, this price increase has already been largely completed in the past week and will be completed on Monday. So the April monomer prices are more of a tracking of the March polymer price facts. The April price rises are counteracted by the Easter holidays, which last until around 12 April and are traditionally considered the "low-season" in Europe.

Price increases may be stimulated by the fact that non-European sources of imported polymers have become significantly scarce, partly for logistical reasons, but mostly for production reasons. Polymer producers in the Far East are experiencing difficulties due to feedstock supply problems, with a growing number of polymer producers that used to supply the European market shutting down. In Asia, we should expect significant supply constraints, as illustrated by the fact that last week, some polymer producers issued 1-2 hour prices for some polymers. Imports from the Middle East have stopped completely, and the grades (PPH BOPP, LLDPE C4, etc. and other polyethylenes) that were typically imported from this region are disappearing from the market, causing a significant drop in production for the European plastics converters using them. In Europe, too, there are shutdowns due to feedstock supply and technical reasons. A significant supply shortage is also expected in Central Europe due to the planned maintenance of the ORLEN cracker. However, at the end of last week, news emerged that since last week's failure has been repaired, this will allow the planned maintenance to be postponed until the second half of 2026. It would be a good and logical step to prevent a polyolefin supply crisis in Central Europe.

The price dynamics of the past week show many similarities with the spring of 2021 or 2022, but then demand supported the steeply rising prices. This year and last year were characterized by weak demand. And in the past 2 weeks, "panic demand" has developed, with converters scrambling to secure production for the coming months, in some cases at any cost. Even those who declared themselves to have sufficient stocks until the beginning of May bought. Demand from flexible packaging manufacturers is particularly good, but IM companies have been much more restrained in their purchases. Demand will be reduced by the fact that, following the publication of the annual financial reports, the credit lines of many European plastics converters will be reduced due to weak economic performance in 2025. However, higher polymer prices also provide an opportunity for plastics converters to restore profitability. They are also helped by fewer imports of finished goods due to the crisis in maritime logistics.

Plastic converters are also trying to raise prices, with partial success so far. Successful price rises have been between 10-20%, but many buyers of finished products are not yet willing to accept price increases. Moreover, in many cases, contracts allow price increases only after a certain grace period of 30-90 days.

In 2026, high polymer prices will persist until the supply situation normalizes. It is possible that this will not happen until the autumn. Even if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were to end next week, restoring the disrupted maritime logistical balance would not be an easy or quick process. Consequently, feedstock and polymer prices should be expected to remain high and supply tight.

Author: myCEPPI