Polymer prices - further price increases expected in April
The feedstock price increase would theoretically allow for an olefin monomer price increase of around €500. But European monomer producers are likely to continue their cautious pricing policy from January. So we expect a price increase of "only" €250-350 for olefins and styrene monomers in April.
Consequently, further price increases are expected for polymer prices. Most European polymer producers intend to implement the monomer price increases on a March-end basis. In the previously sent April polyolefin prices, prices above €2,000 have already appeared. In the first half of April, with the Easter holidays already underway, it is likely that only slower price increases will be possible. However, after 13 April, demand may pick up and there is scope for further price increases. After March 13, it will become clear how much polymer supply is expected in May and June. Plastic converters are confident that the Iran war will end and supply will be restored by April or May. Even if the war is over, the supply recovery will take longer, 3-5 months. Partly for production reasons, partly for logistical reasons. If continuous polymer production in Europe can be maintained in 2026, prices will reach their highest value by the end of May, mid-June. After that, the period of tight supply and high prices will remain with us until the end of the year. If there are significant disruptions to European feedstock supply and polymer production, prices could temporarily jump to extreme heights. Import availability for both feedstock and polymers has significantly narrowed and will continue to narrow. Feedstock supply and production problems are being faced on every continent. Therefore, imports will be sporadic in the coming months. Only the polymer industry in Central Asia, integrated with oil extraction and refining, is able to supply continuously.
The next two weeks may bring temporary relief to prices, as the April prices are expected to be announced on Wednesday-Thursday at the earliest, and from Friday onwards, most market participants will be on holiday in Europe. This may seem like a correction, but after April 13, prices may gain further momentum due to shrinking supply.
The only way out for converters is to increase their selling prices. This probably won't happen in one step, it will require continuous effort. Those who postpone price increases for market protection or other reasons will realize negative cash in their sales given the current polymer price dynamics. Price increases are supported by a decrease in the volume of imported finished products, as well as price increases by European competitors.
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