Polymer prices - steep polymer price increases, panic among understocked converters

Thus, they continued their cautious pricing policy and raised their prices in the price range (20-50 €/t) according to our forecast. Thus, the March contract price of ethylene monomer, published on Monday, increased by only 50 €/t compared to February. The price of styrene monomer (SM) also increased by only €73/t. Polymer producers have been holding off on publishing their price lists, but as early as Tuesday of last week there was a sense that a major price rise was on the cards for March.
The past week has been characterized by dynamic pricing. Monday's prices showed little change, and as expected, the Serbian polyethylene producer's Monday morning prices showed a roll-over compared to the previous week. After the 50 euro monomer price increase published on Monday afternoon, the prices published on Tuesday showed a 70-100 euro increase in polyolefin prices, and those published on Wednesday showed a 150-200 euro increase. In some cases, Friday prices reached a price increase of close to 300 euro compared to the end of February. Due to the daily fluctuating prices, plastics converters perceived prices in a wide price range, which also included Tuesday and Friday prices. Most polymer manufacturers have switched to weekly pricing. Most price lists were only valid until Friday of the last week. The data in the report show the prices in force on Friday with availability. Next week, on Monday, European polymer manufacturers will publish new prices. This provides an opportunity for further price increases on the one hand and for price synchronization on the other. This means that even manufacturers who announced their prices in the first days of last week and fell significantly behind by Friday can now raise prices.
Due to the closure of the strait of Hormuz, several Asian polymer producers have also announced FM due to expected and looming feedstock supply problems. This means that the arrival of Asian imports has become uncertain, and in addition, container prices and insurance premiums are rising. Some of the importers have withdrawn their previously issued price lists, while others are still waiting for a price agreement. However, it is certainly clear that import prices rose more than expected in February. Importers are likely to follow changes in European market prices. Polymer export prices (FOB) are rising at the ports of shipment, steeply in Asia, but so far only by $20-30 in North America. However, due to the emerging tight supply, North American polymer manufacturers are also expected to seize the opportunity to increase prices.
In addition to global supply and demand problems, an extremely tight regional supply of polyolefin and PET is beginning to emerge in Central Europe. With the exception of the Czech Republic, polymer production is characterized by production problems and shutdowns in almost every country. The most significant impact is the breakdown of the Orlen cracker. The disruption affects both PVC and polyolefins production in all countries except the Czech Republic. The Romanian polymer producer is still under maintenance, the sales of Bulgarian and Serbian polyolefin producers are limited by sanctions, and the Hungarian polyolefin producer's feedstock supply is uncertain, partly due to the refinery fire and partly due to the uncertainty of crude oil supply. In the case of PET, one of the largest producers has closed down both its Polish and Lithuanian plants. In addition, the region's oil supply has become uncertain, not only due to the shutdown of the “Druzhba" pipeline, but also due to the escalation of the war in the Middle East.