Polymer prices - expectations of price cuts have halted demand

4.6.2026

Expectations of price declines, increasing imports, and the approach of summer have removed demand from the market. European polymer manufacturers are in a selling panic. Significant price cuts have already been implemented in the past week. They are trying to sell at a higher price, while spreads are shrinking, and in some cases, they are even negative for PPH and HDPE offers. Negative spreads will certainly lead to a decrease in European polymer production and a narrowing of supply. The sharply falling European prices are also making importers working with long lead times cautious. Price cuts do not generate additional demand and even deter converters from purchasing.

Both plastics converters and their customers are confident, blindly trusting in the steep price drop this summer. Their main goal is to use up the supplies, which are now considered "expensive", as soon as possible. Supply and production security are once again not a consideration for either plastics converters or their customers. It is expected that by the end of July or mid-August, plastics converters will be similarly understocked as in February. Meanwhile, the supply in Central Europe is shrinking significantly due to maintenance and disruptions. It is very likely that some grades will have availability issues as early as June. Incoming imports focus only on the grades used in the largest quantities. The market is now driven not by facts, but by sentiment. Converters and their buyers are panicking and want to get rid of their expensive stocks, so they are not buying. There seems to be nothing stopping the significant drop in prices. The price drop significantly reduces the demand for polymer and plastic finished products, which induces further price declines. According to the head of a Central European polypropylene manufacturer1, if an ECG device shows something similar to the current polymer price curve, it means a heart attack. Continuing the analogy, if the first heart attack is not fatal, the second or third will be.

Feedstock prices do not justify such a drop in polymer prices. In the past week, the price of NAPHTHA has stabilized above 700 USD/t. BRENT remained above USD 90/barrel. There is no significant change in the fundamentals. This continues to predict high monomer prices and negative polymer spreads. The European polymer industry is starting to see a profitability situation similar to January-February, coupled with strong supply pressures. The situation is different in Central Europe, where the supply has narrowed significantly. However, this is not immediately noticeable due to weak demand and import offers, but due to ongoing maintenance and MOL Petrochemical Force Majeure, it will be noticeable by the end of June for some, and by the end of July for most HDPE, PPC, PPR and some PPH grades. This sets the stage for a second wave of panic buying, a second "heart attack".

Author: myCEPPI