Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 67.82 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.232, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 532.9 USD/t, increasing prices
• Slightly increasing contractual olefin monomer and steeply increasing contractual SM prices
• Ethylene (C2) contract price +30€/t (1,045 EUR/t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price +20 €/t  (970 EUR/t),
• On the day when the report was written styrene monomer contract (SM) price was not yet known
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• Demand in line with the season, yet precautious.
• Short PE and PP supply

Now it is already for sure that olefin monomer prices will increase,   though spot propylene price was unchanged all over the month, until the middle of the last week. This has made market players uncertain. Yet the minor price increase that happened on Thursday-Friday supported the increase of the April contract price.  The generally short PP supply induces a price increase generally exceeding the price increase of monomer grades in April. In case of polyethylene grades supply is getting shorter. In this way both LDPE and HDPE prices, first of all the bottom value of the price ranges, have started their way up.  Supply remains short in April as well, due to the shutdowns in Central and Western Europe.

The price change of SM is not yet known. But the price increase can almost be taken for granted. Spot monomer prices increased by 65 USD compared to the beginning of the month. Players prepare also here for a price increase of similar magnitude.

Polyolefin grades

Typical LDPE prices were in a range of 1,010-1,120 €/t last week.  Seemingly there was no change but the quantity of goods is extremely low in the lower price category. Supply is available rather in the price range of 1,050 -1,120 €.  The market anticipates price increase, there was a high interest last week. For the time being not even the resolution of the production problems at SABIC results in the significant increase of the supply in Europe. This week the incident at the plant of LyondellBasell in Aubett causes supply bottleneck.  We expect a price increase exceeding monomer price increase by 30-50 €  by April.

HDPE supply is still short.  But this did not result in price increase last week. Here the typical HDPE prices in Poland were in a range of 1,085-1,170 €/t. In the other parts of Central-Europe the price range was 1,120-1,200 €/t.  The market anticipates increasing supply and prices in April. The rate of the price increase will follow monomer prices, at WE producers the rate of the price change can exceed monomer price increase.

HDPE BM prices are in a range of 1,090-1,170 €/t in Poland, while in a range of 1,130-1,190 €/t in other parts of Central-Europe.  Supply is balanced for the time being.  In April a price increase following monomer prices is probable.

The tendency of HDPE IM prices was similar in Poland and also in the other countries of Central-Europe.  Last week we have measured prices in a range of 1,110-1,170 €/t last week.  Supply is still short. In April the price of HDPE IM produced in Europe is expected to increase by 30-40 €/t. 

In case of HDPE FILM grades, in Poland, prices were in a range of 1,100-1,170 €/t last week. In the other countries of Central-Europe the price range is 1,140-1,200 €/t.  Here the upward movement seems to be clear, which is due to the short supply. In April, compared to the prices in March, we expect a price increase by 30-40 €/t.

Typical prices of HDPE (100) grades were in a range of 1,270-1,360 €/t they did not change compared to the previous week.  The season in CE seems to be good, demand is good and increasing.  A price increase by 40-50 € slightly exceeding monomer prices is probable in April.

LLDPE C4 supply increased, buyers can anticipate the price reduction in North-America to potentially affect Europe as well.  The typical price range is 1,000-1,070 €/t.  In April, in spite of the weakening of the USD no price increase exceeding 20 Euro is probable. 

 mLLDPE (C6) supply and demand were good and last week prices varied in a range of 1,150-1,300 €/t, depending on the grade and producer.  Supply is balanced and demand is good. We expect a price increase corresponding to the monomer price increase.  In April prices will be in a range of 1,180-1,320 €.

PPH demand is high.  Supply is still short. The bottom of the price range increased last week, due to the minor price increase of the Serbian producer by 20 EUR. The typical price range is 1,140-1,260 €/t.  

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of  1,140-1,220 €/t in Central Europe last week. Supply is still short. We expect a price increase exceeding monomer prices by +30-40 €/t.

The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/t last week.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,170-1,260 €/t last week.  We expect a price increase exceeding monomer prices. In case of grades with low and medium melt index a price increase by +20-40 €/t and in case of those with high melt index a price increase by +30-40 Euro is probable.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,200-1,310 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  Demand is good, soon also quantities imported from outside of Europe are sold out.  In this way also the bottom of the price ranges can start increasing, thus leaving levels below 1,200 €.  Typical price range in April is expected to be  1,240-1,350 €/t.

PPR demand was very good but supply continued to be short.  The demand for pipe grades has increased dramatically.  The price range was 1,280-1,370 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area. We expect an increase by 30-40 € in April.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The EPS season has not started yet, but demand is good. The typical price range where deals were made, was 1,250-1,300 €/t.  Buyers are aware of the price increase that can be expected. The change of prices will probably be identical with the SM price increase.

Typical GPPS prices are in a price range of 1,220-1,310 €/t. while HIPS prices are in a price range of 1,260-1,400 €/t. They did not change compared to last week. Supply is short.  A price increase by 60-80 EUR following monomer prices is probable.

ABS prices were in a range of 1,490 - 1,650 €/t last week.  They did not change. Due to the broad supply a price increase lower than the SM price change is probable.