Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 64.06 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1,1020, a stagnant Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 530.71 USD/t, slowly further increasing prices
• December contract monomer prices:
  • On the day when the report was written ethylene (C2)contract prices were not yet known
  • Propylene (C3) preliminary contract price +5 EUR / t (845 EUR / t),
  • Styrene Monomer (SM) contract price: Not known at the time of writing this report
• In the last week of November, demand was "dead",
• Import from outside of Europe is low.
• Spot markets seem to stand still,

The mood seems to change. The majority of market players are already expecting roll-over for both monomers and polymers. The continued rise in the price of NAPHTA has exhausted the margin reserves of monomer producers. Further price reductions are already negative profitability. This turn is also supported by the slight increase of the propylene monomer C3 (EUR 5). The question now is only the change in ethylene prices. Which is not yet known late Friday afternoon. Roll-over seems the most likely, but a slight increase in price (€ 5-10) is also conceivable.

In the case of polyethylene, the situation is complex. Converters expected further price reductions for both LDPE and HDPE in December. Polymer manufacturers who have so far held high HDPE prices above $ 1,000/ton will be forced to make further price reductions. Even in case of monomer roll-over. However, in the price bands close to € 900, there is no further reduction margin. Exceptions are spot items outside Europe. A number of converters are planning larger LDPE purchases by December. This in turn will increase demand and push prices upwards. Thus, the cheapest items are also expected to move out of the price range below € 900. All of this means that HDPE is expected to roll-over and drop slightly, while LDPE is likely to start moving upwards in small steps in December.

The situation is different with polypropylenes. For the time being, there is no news at MOL Petrochemical about the release of force majeure. MOL PP deliveries are expected to be disrupted in December as well. The production and supply to customers by the Serbian PP producer is not continuous either. This is expected to remain so in December. The slight rise in C3 prices is a clear signal to the market that this is the very lowest point of prices. Due to the tight supply and the turnaround in monomer prices, a lower price increase of € 5-15 is likely in southern and central Europe. The reaction of Polish buyers is questionable. For the time being, the supply seems plentiful and the willingness to accept any price increase is low. However, there is a fear that in the event of a sudden change in price and customer sentiment, buyers will begin panic shopping, which may not have commodity coverage in the Central European market.

For SM, expectations are for a slight price change of less than +/- 30 Euros. However the probability of this is rather low. But the monomer price turnaround may also affect SM. And the further decline stops. In any case, PS purchasing activity will remain low in December.

POLYOLEFIN GRADES

LDPE prices were in a range of 910-1,000 €/t last week in Central Europe. They did not change. Prices below € 900 are expected to catch up by December. We expect smaller advance purchases by December. The most likely are roll-over and in the low-price ranges price increases of 5-10 €.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 910 - 1,020 €/t in Central Europe last week. Prices and demand have not changed. Buyers referred to lack of order. However, the main motivation is to expect further price reductions in December. It is also important that the market is flooded with news of extremely cheap (typically under EUR 900) HDPE of North American origin. There are indeed offers at this price level, but quantity and legitimacy are often questionable. And they still drive customer expectations downward. Typical prices for each HDPE grade were as follows:

• HDPE BM 920-980 €/t,
• HDPE IM prices 930-1,020 €/t,
• HDPE FILM grades 910-990 €/t,

In December, a roll-over or a slight drop in the price of more expensive goods is expected. Demand is not expected to pick up. Converters are forced to wait until the first 2020 orders are received.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,160-1,200 €/t last week. Prices have not changed. And they are expected to remain similar in December. Neither decrease nor rise is expected. Demand is expected to pick up from late January.

LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 920-980 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. Prices have fallen slightly. We expect weakening demand in December at constant prices.

mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,020-1,160 €/t last week. The market is in balance. There was a slight decrease in oversupply.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 920-1,030 €/t last week. Due to production problems at MOL Petrochemical and HIPOL, fewer products are expected to be available on the market. This will also affect BOPP producers. Due to the increase in the price of propylene monomer (EUR 5), polymer prices are likely to increase by even as much as EUR 10-15.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 920-1,020 €/t last week. Prices have not changed compared to the previous week. The price of products with high flow index was in a range of € 1,020 - € 1,080/t. Demand has stopped, but supply is not strong. In the past week there have been few spot market offers. Due to monomer price increases also PPH prices are likely to increase by 5-15 €. The smallest rise is likely in Poland.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,080 to 1,180 €/t in Central Europe. They did not change compared to last week. Converters expect a further price drop. However, they must be disappointed. The falling price trend will come to a halt in December. Demand is not expected to pick up. Prices will rise slightly by 0-10 €.

PPR prices were on the average in a range of 1,120-1,220 €/t last week, they did not change compared to last week.  Demand is not expected to pick up in December either. We expect smaller speculative upfront purchases. The price change will vary between 0-15 € depending on the grade, area of application and country.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

POLYSTYRENE GRADES

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,080-1,130 €/t last week. The construction season is over. Demand is low. Strengthening is expected only in January. In December, prices will follow the SM price change.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,180 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,200-1,300 €/t. Demand for HIPS is good. There is a low quantity of PS import from outside of Europe on the market. The rising HIPS price is also due to this. We expect weak demand in December. Prices will follow the SM price change. However, the first major import shipments to Europe are expected to arrive in January.

Typical ABS prices have been in the range of 1,350-1,500 € over the past week. Demand is low. Customers are cautious, but perhaps less pessimistic than at the beginning of the month. Demand is not expected to pick up in December either. However, in January, as fears of the crisis dissipate, buying may resume. The cheapest prices are tied to far eastern producers, who keep the market under great pressure. In December we expect a price change following the SM.