Weekly commodity price report

The following factors  influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 60.23 USD/barrel, stagnating prices
• EUR/USD: 1.1163, further strengthening of the Euro
• NAPHTHA (European): 491.00 USD/t, slowly increasing prices
• November contract monomer prices:
• Ethylene (C2) contract price -30 EUR/t (960 EUR / t),
• Propylene (C3) contract price -30 EUR/t (840 EUR / t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) contract price -65 EUR/t (1,000 EUR/t),
• Weaker than usual demand.

Oil and NAPHTHA prices are stagnating. Monomer prices have fallen. Ethylene (C2) and propylene (C3) prices alike dropped by 30 €. No surprises, everything happened as expected. The fall in prices has already arrived in November. In 2018, November also brought a monomer price drop. The monomer supply is wide, as already predicted by spot monomer prices in October. Weak monomer demand is likely in November due to low polymer prices. Thus, spot monomer price increases are unlikely in the coming weeks. Weak monomer demand will persist due to the coming end of the year and the low prices.

Polymer manufacturers will aim to sell their full production in November. They try to minimize their inventory. They are therefore likely to pass on the full monomer price drop. If demand is lower than expected, even more than expected. Fears of recession also permeate the polymer market. The market situation is aggravated by the increasing competitiveness of North American polyethylene grades due to the strengthening of the Euro. And, as demand with the the end of the year approaching, will weaken in Asia as well.

Because of recession fears, plastic converters are also working to optimize and minimize their inventory. As this year price increase is no longer likely, converters are not too motivated to buy. As a result, November will be characterized by strong pressure from sellers, while converters will keep waiting and procrastinating.  Price will be one of the most important tools in exercising pressure. It is feared that if these sellers are not prudent enough, even a negative price spiral could start. Although European NAPHTHA-based polyethylene prices are already close to their economic low. There is little room for price reductions here. However, imports of polyethylene from outside of Europe are becoming increasingly competitive as the euro strengthens. Thus, all-in-all, for the average price of polyethylene, a price decrease of polyethylene in excess of the ethylene monomer price decrease is conceivable.

The price of SM fell by € 65. The price of all polystyrene is expected to fall at the same rate in November.

Polyolefin grades

LDPE prices were in a range of  930-1,020 €/t last week.  Prices have not changed compared to the previous week. Polymer producers will announce their prices in the week ahead. Prices are expected to be around 900-1,000 €/t in November. Russian, Belorussian materials are expected to be cheaper if there is enough supply.

Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 - 1,110 €/t in Central Europe last week. They did not change. Demand has been weak over the past week and is expected to remain so until the end of the year. Price drop following monomer prices is likely. Prices are not expected to break the 900 €/t psychological limit. Despite the high import pressure and competition from the south (Turkey). In Poland, for a limited quantity (less than 1,000 t), a price below € 900 is likely. However, this market will be characterized by a price range of 910-1,030 €/t.

Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,080 €/t last week. They did not change. In November prices between 920-1,030 €/t are likely.

Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 950 - 1,070 €/t in Central Europe. They did not change. Buyers were already expecting November prices. Prices are expected in a range of 920 - 1,020 €/t in November.

HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 940-1,110 €/t in Central-Europe last week. They did not change compared to last week. In November, an average price drop of € 30 is expected. Prices will range from 910 to 1,050 €/t, depending on the grade and producers.

Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,300 €/t last week. Prices have not changed. We expect a price reduction following monomer prices. Prices will be between 1,190-1,250 €/t in November. However, discounted promotional offers may appear around the end of the month.

The LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 950-1,040 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. They did not change. Smaller price drop is expected in November due to the weakening of the dollar. Due to the weak demand for PE in Asia, the supply in Europe is expected to be wide. Which can further reduce market prices.

 mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,220 €/t last week. They did not change. We expect an average price reduction following monomer prices. Typical prices will be between 1,020 and 1,150 €/t.

Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 970-1,060 €/t. Higher prices fell slightly. Demand was low because converters were just sitting and waiting. MOL's PP4 plant is expected to restart in November. As a result, the supply will be even wider. November prices are expected to be in the range of 950-1,020 €/t.

The price of PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 980-1,110 €/t last week. They did not change. The price of products with high flow index  was in a range of € 1,060 - € 1,180/t. Weakening demand, expanding supply and prices dropping as monomer prices are expected in November. The price range for products with low and medium flow index will be 960-1,070 €/t and for products with high flow index in a range of 1,040-1,120 €/t.

Typical PPC prices ranged from 1,100 to 1,240 €/t in Central Europe. They did not change compared to last week. In November, the price of polymers produced in Europe will drop, following monomer prices. While imports from outside Europe will remain unchanged. Typical prices will range from 1,100 to 1,200 €/t.

PPR prices were in a range of 1,130-1,250 €/t last week, there was  no change. Following the monomer prices, a drop of around € 30 is likely. Prices will be between 1,110-1,220 €/t in November.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,200 €/t last week. Demand was good. However, EPS polymer producers are out of stock. The Central European EPS season is expected to continue in the first two weeks of November. As a result, polymer producers do not pass on the full monomer price drop and will probably keep 20-30 €. Thus the initial prices will be between 1,130-1,260 €/t. Which may fall further in a second step in the second half of November.

Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,100-1,220 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,070-1,310 €/t. HIPS prices in Poland have dropped significantly due to incoming import shipments. In the case of European-made polymers, a price drop following monomer prices is likely. While the price of non-European imports remains unchanged. November prices for the GPPS range from 1,100 to 1,160 €/t for HIPS from 1,070 to 1,220 €/t.

ABS prices are in a price range of 1,395-1,650 Eur. Due to imports into Poland, the cheapest prices have fallen below € 1,400. This also predicts November prices. European-made polymers are likely to experience a price decline following SM. Thus, we expect November prices to be in the range of 1,395-1,570 € /t. With weak and further weakening demand.