Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 61.68 USD/barrel, prices increasing again,
• EUR/USD: 1.1498, Euro getting stronger
• NAPHTHA: 468, U28SD/t, increasing prices
• Average demand as usual in January,
• Decreasing contractual monomer olefin and dropping SM contracted prices
• Ethylene (C2) contracted price January -40 EUR/t (985 €/t)
• Propylene (C3) contracted price January -35 EUR/t (925 €/t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) contracted price January -15 EUR/t (975 €/t)
• The spot propylene price increased by 25 Euro compared to December 31, 2018.
• In the second half of the last week also the markets of the southern market returned from holiday.

Polymer producers came up with their prices early last week.  Compared to the prices in December, in case of LDPE the amount of price drop is between 30-40 €/ton, in case of HDPE between 10-40 €/ton, and in case of PP between 10-25 €/ton. All this is line with the preliminary expectations. Demand is not high yet. The reason is that working days in January have started practically on the 7th and in the orthodox Christian countries in the second half of the last week. Accordingly the volume of orders of polymer producers has not reached yet the rate usual at the middle of the month.  Only an average 65-75% of the production of January is covered by orders.  This is how one of the major regional producers reduced its prices in several steps last week.  There was probably the constraint to sell in the background. During the next three weeks ahead demand will increase. The price of oil and naphtha has already started increasing and so did also the price of spot propylene (C3).  According to the forecasts the oil price level of higher than 60 USD (Brent) will be permanent and it is possible that the price of NAPHTHA will increase soon to above 500 USD. In this case also monomer and polymer prices will follow the prices of feedstocks. These expectations might boost demand in the second half of January.

The price of SM seems to have hit bottom.  The same happened to PS  prices. GPPS and HIPS prices have dropped to an extent greater than the price drop of monomer grades.  Prices dropped by 15-50 Euro. For the time being it would be too early to talk about February, but a minor price increase has already started on the markets of the Far-East. This will as usual also spill over on the European market as well. Spot SM prices have not started increasing yet, prices are unchanged. But market players anticipate a price volatility similar to that of recent years. This means a sudden and steep 3-digit increase and decrease.

It is true both for polyolefin and polystyrene grades that further price reduction can be anticipated neither in January nor in February.

In detail

Polyolefin grades

On the average LDPE prices dropped by 40 Euro, the typical price range is 980-1,080 €/t.  The demand is not too high, supply is good.   Only some grades produced by Slovnaft are in short supply, but in the second half of the month these will be available again.  There are many kinds of materials on the market, in particular in Poland. Due to this some major buyers can buy even at prices below 980 Euro.

Not every producer did the same move in the HDPE price reduction. Prices decreased by 10-40 Euro. The Polish producer decreased prices most.  The Hungarian producer reduced prices least, on the Hungarian market, by 10-20 Euro only.  In Central Europe the typical HDPE prices were in a range of 1,070-1,200 €/t last week. Cheapest prices were in Poland starting from 1,070 Euro. HDPE IM prices were in a range of 1,070-1,160 €/t and HDPE Film and BM prices were in a range of 1,080-1,200 €. We do not expect further price drop in the second half of January any more.

The typical HDPE (100) prices in January are in a range of 1,230-1,300 €/t. Demand is low. For the time being pipe manufacturers are busy with maintenance, sales are low. Demand is expected to grow only as late as in February.

The USD getting weaker resulted also in the drop of LLDPE C4 prices, the typical price range was 980 - 1,120 €/t last week. The drop of the bottom of the price range was caused by the significant oversupply. 

Also mLLDPE prices dropped significantly, prices varied in a broad range (1,150-1,340 €/t). As the products of more and more producers is available in Central-Europe, it is natural that the prices range is getting broader and average prices are dropping.

PPH prices were in a range of 1,100-1,240 €/t last week.  On the average there was a price decrease 20 €.  The lowest prices were in Bulgaria and Romania. But prices were balanced in the other parts of Central Europe.  The PPH market seems to start well, demand is high. Supply is satisfactory, not too broad. PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,100-1,190 €/t. The price range of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was 1,120-1,210 €/t.  The prices of products with high melt index were in a range of 1,180-1,250 €/t last week.  In the second half of the month demand is expected to get stronger.

Typical prices of PPC grades were in a range of 1,240-1,340 €/t in Central-Europe last week.  On the average polymer producers decreased prices by 10-25 €. Demand for IM products is good. The demand for extrusion, first of all pipe products is low.

The PPR price range was 1,240-1,380 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.  There was a price reduction by 10-25 Euro.  The demand, with the exception of pipe materials, is good, as usual in January. The demand is expected to increase further.

The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

The polystyrene market is Janus-faced:

With regard to EPS there was no significant price reduction.  Last week in Central Europe EPS prices were in a range of 1,250-1,350 €/t.   The price reduction would not have had a major impact on the demand at all, as due to the winter most, mainly small and medium-sized companies do not produce insulation materials.  Only financially sound, major producers produce continuously.

The GPPS and HIPS prices typically dropped to an extent exceeding the drop of monomer prices. GPPS prices were typically in a range of 1,170-1,230 €/t. Some major buyers could even get a price of 1,150 Euro. Supply is good. Typical GPPS prices are in a range of 1,200-1,250 €/t HIPS prices are in a range of 1,190-1,280 €/t.  In the southern region there are high quantities of GPPS and HIPS from Iran. But these materials do not have a significant price advantage compared to the materials produced in Europe. The prices of polystyrene grades from Europe seem to have reached their lowest level now. Expectedly now the only way is up.  This might mean that demand will increase next week.