Weekly commodity price report

The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:

• BRENT oil price 77.85 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
• EUR/USD: 1.1568, EURO getting weaker
• NAPHTHA: 631.91 USD/t, slightly increasing prices
• partially dropping contract monomer prices
• Ethylene (C2): 1,135 €/t (∆:-15€/t)
• Propylene (C3):  1,032 €/t (∆: 0.0 €/t)
• Styrene monomer (SM) contractual price for July is not yet known
• the weakening of regional currencies (by 3-5%) compared to the Euro and the USD
• stable polymer prices,
• low quantity of material imported from outside of the EU,

Olefin monomer prices in July developed according to our forecast from the previous week. Ethylene dropped by 15 €, while the price of propylene remained unchanged compared to June.  In the background there was a price turn on the market of oil and naphtha alike. Prices started going up. All this is coupled also with the continuous weakening of the Euro and the regional currencies. This enhances the effect of the price increase of feedstocks. The permanently high upstream price environment prevents the price reduction of monomer and polymer grades in July.

Regional polymer producers are faced with a twofold challenge: on one hand their present domestic prices, measured in Euro, have dropped by 3-5% what they have to correct, on the other hand, due to the short PP and HDPE supply also the possibility of increasing prices in Euro emerges. Because of the maintenance of BOP expected by September supply is getting shorter on the biggest market, in Poland as well. On the other hand, Polish converters, because of the weakening of the currency, prefer the relatively cheap domestic feedstock.  Like converters in Hungary, Romania and Serbia do.

Converters cut back on their purchases during the last week of June, they expected cheaper monomers and polymers by July. They have probably erred, with the exception of LDPE the possibility to reduce prices is practically excluded. In spite of the fact that converters expected price decrease in case of PP. What is more, due to the price corrections many will see prices in July as increase. Some WE producers prepare for a minor price increase by about 10 € because of the low availability.

SM prices are not yet know, but spot SM prices have dropped also last week.  We expect contractual prices for July by Monday.

Polyolefin grades

The demand for LDPE is still low.  Converters expect a price decrease in July. They seem to be right.  Central-European polymer producers get prepared for a minor price increase following monomer prices in July. The price drop is to be understood in Euro and this might correspond to an increase in local currencies. In this way, to boost demand and to fend off the effect of the exchange rate, a price increase by more than 15 Euro might come.  We expect a price range of 1,140-1,200 € by the first half of July. 

HDPE supply is still short in the price range of 1,180-1,220 €/t. In the southern region, at the Serbian producer HDPE Film and BM grades are still available at higher prices.  Short supply will persist in July, in this way HDPE producers will probably not follow monomer prices, rather roll-over is probable.

The typical price range was in Poland 1,170-1,220 € while in the other part of Central-Europe the typical price range will be 1,190-1,220 €. Some HDPE producers who had high prices in June, will be forced to reduce prices to the average price level.

Demand for HDPE (100) pipe is good, roll-over can be expected, and also here a downward price correction can be anticipated in case of polymer producers who used high pricing.    We expect the typical price range to be 1,420-1,550 €/t.

LLDPE C4 prices remained in a price range of 1,120 – 1,190 €.   The weakening of the Euro might result in a further price increase in July. According to forecasts, short supply is to be expected in July, in Poland in particular. Import sources from overseas (South-America) seem to be temporarily down. This applies to LDPE and HDPE alike.

mLLDPE prices remained in the range of 1,290-1,400 €/t last week, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  In July roll-over is most probable.

PPH supply will remain short in July and August.  Producers in Central Europe think in terms of a price increase by up to 20 Euro.  WE polymer producers keep on increasing their prices, a price increase by 20-30 € is possible. Similar to Russian polymer producers, who also see chances to increase prices by 20-30 € in July. In this way PPH prices will in fact exceed 1,200 €. Trader inventories with prices lower than this are already sold out. The fact that accumulating inventories due to the shutdown of BOP in September has already started curbs the demand. We anticipate a minor price increase by up to 20 Euro.  The typical price range will be 1,200-1,300 €/ton.

Similar events can be expected in case of PPC as well.  The typical price range in June was 1,270-1,400 €/ton, depending on the grade, producer and application area. Roll-over is probable, and because of the weakening CE currencies many will see this as a price increase.

The typical PPR price range is 1,310-1,440 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area.  Roll over can be expected.

The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):

Polystyrene grades

EPS demand was low last week.   SM spot prices decreasing worldwide generated price decrease expectations.   The typical price range remained 1,520-1,620 €. For the time being demand for finished products and for polymer grades alike is low.  The direction of SM price change is still a question mark in July, converters and polymer producers hope for a reduction.

The demand for GPPS and HIPS was weak last week.  On the world market SM and PS prices have dropped. Yet this can be felt now in the expectations only. But the price reduction measured in USD is compensated by the weakening Euro. Because of the Euro getting weak also import prices increased, surprisingly to a level higher than the European prices, GPPS 1,450- 1,500, HIPS 1,500-1,550. The European price range of GPPS was 1,380-1,500 € and in case of HIPS prices were in a range of 1,440-1,600 €/t last week.  A price change following monomer prices is to be expected.